Where some commentators had expected a retrace in the USD this week we have seen no signs of it so far. Our dominant idea this week is that the short USD and long gold/bitcoin trade is going to get started more vigorously after a couple of false-starts.
This trade can continue until the end of the year.
The trade higher in the S&P500 overnight may be a blow-off top and we can see a retracement to 3440-3460.
Alternatively, is it possible that the inflation figures are already known by the market? (and bidding the S&P?).
The market does not seem to be behind the recent move in BTC so far – although it is edging higher. Volumes in the asset are low.
We are bullish here in suggesting that this move has barely got started.
Our scenario analysis is that the market reprices higher, then short positions are established which are later stopped out into almost no liquidity at all. The timing on this is uncertain.
BTC last traded at $11,648
24 hr high: $ 11,733
24 hr low: $ 11,176
It’s difficult to suggest a new trade in bitcoin at the moment. We can see that its most recent reversal was the maximally bullish place for the asset to turn around and break its high.
If it trades back below $11,500 it might be worth a bid, or momentum trades for traders who can read order-books.
After starting off this move higher the more bearish asset between the two, Eth has traded 20% higher from its low already.
24 hr high: $ 395.5
24 hr low: $ 365.5
Most assets traded higher – although not as significantly as where we think this move can take us. Bancor was top performer and Ren gave back some of its large recent move higher.
|Asset||Code||Price (USD)||24hr Change (%)||Volume||Market Capitalisation|
|Universal Market Access||$UMA||9.37||6.02705||28,664,489.00||$516,179,422.00|
The Chinese data will be important today and there are some inflation figures out of the US that also has the potential to change things in markets.
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