This weeks newsletter comes a couple of days after our end of month April update which you can find here.
We have also updated some of the things we were watching last newsletter
The market has been well and truely more bullish than the potential flag we marked in last weekends newsletter.
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Today’s Chart
We had also looked for a structural squeeze of longs that never materialised. Open interest had collapsed – institutional shorts had nobody left to squeeze.
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Bitcoin Dominance Chart 26/04/2020
We wrote that Bitcoin dominance was rolling over, but suggested that the Bitcoin price could be suppressed because it was most likely to be shorted most heavily.
The new question on dominance is whether the pivot from bearish to bullish also swaps the trend.
Our chart from weekend newsletter
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Bitcoin Dominance Chart 3/05/2020
The updated chart (todays) looks more like a consolidation than rolling over; potentially due to a material shift in Bitcoins market structure – institutions must abandon short positions.
Chart from today
BTC USD Chart
We include a Bitcoin / USD price chart to compare the previous chart with the shift in Bitcoin dominance in the red box (a) to the Bitcoin price itself (compare dominance chart to price chart). We can see how the price dropped hard (bullish to bearish reversal) after dominance shifted. This time the price shifted first.
Our sentiment analysis from this newsletter beginning with ‘Our sentiment analysis last week’ also showed more aggressive bullishness in this markets bearish-bullish reversal than comparable times.
Chart
Although the Fear & Greed Index has shifted the market remains in Fear (or neutral).
Although the Fear & Greed Index has shifted the market remains in Fear (or neutral).
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In the US Dollar Index we had pointed out a very ugly chart (in the red square) full of wicks after the US Fed cut their daily asset purchase from $30 billion to $15 billion. But USD has moved more smoothly since making a swing-high. Perhaps this is what it really wants to do.
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