Mine Newsletter - A Tale of Two Alt-Coins
February 5, 2020
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Mine Newsletter – A Tale of Two Alt-Coins

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Thomas Kuhn, CFA

Operations and Trading Manager

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

Thursday, 6th February 2020

Think he’s holding Satoshi’s Whitepaper

But before we get onto Bitcoin Cash and BSV, the S&P 500 was back to all-time highs overnight, shaking off the coronavirus like the common flu. The potential for an exponentially increasing number of cases is beginning to get under control, there were rumours of a cure on the way (highly unlikely) but in any case it appears that it is on its way to being successfully managed.

it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness,

and a piece from Citibanks Tobias Levkovich noted that ‘pretty much every client wants to buy the dip’. TESLA had its correction, hitting its high just under $1000 USD a share the day before last and signing more pessimists into Elon Musks graveyard. The argument could have been seen as whether it was a car company or a tech company, and they got this one wrong similarly to how WeWork was not a tech company.

it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness,

It looked like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and BSV were jockeying for a limited number of positions as cryptocurrencies. BCH has broken out of its consolidation recently in a significant appreciation the last 24 hours

Daily Chart for Bitcoin Cash / USD

Whereas BSV has already had a much larger move, but did not manage to go with the rest of the market overnight

Daily Chart for BSV / USD

Although it had made an attempt

1 Hr Chart for BSV / USD

Bitcoin was led by Bitcoin Cash in this instance, as general bullishness in the markets continued. This pattern looks like Bitcoin Bears attempting to put consolidation around the move, but seems flimsy given general sentiment. On Tuesday we thought the move would be bullish Thursday or Friday so we will see how it plays out.

1hr Chart Bitcoin / USD

it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,

As a systematic hedge, Bitcoin puts us at odds with its own raison d’etre in some ways. Although this sentiment indicator rates it as neutral, the overall sentiment in the Crypto markets feels very bullish, with 5+% gains on the day for almost all coins in the top 15. Bitcoin itself has just made half a billion transactions as reported by cointelegraph.

we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.

As the hyper-correlation between the Feds decisions and markets continue to grow stronger in this inbred financial system, we have to wonder what the situation would be without the exponential benefit of technology in the last 30 years. The Black Tuesday (1929) and Black Monday (1987) stock market crashes had hit low-point yields of about 3%. Yields collapsed again under Alan Greenspan and the dot com bubble to 1.11% August 2000 and currently sit at 1.75%, under the mean, 4.33% and median, 4.27% of the last 150 years.

The fact that there is barely any yield anywhere on an essentially insiders gaming of the financial system is a French Aristocracy type problem but the rapid expansion of technology has been mitigating its effects. Cryptocurrencies create an alternative from this system – we have nothing to lose but our chains! Although as likely is institutional flows into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ($600 million into Grayscale last year) beginning to become larger HODLers.
Although in this revolution we are also seeing some very interesting social and cultural developments that we will talk about in due course.

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity

And there has been a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for the marketing machine that pushed Greta Thunburg forward as its representative – the young Swedish girl whom her mother says can see carbon dioxide with her naked eye.

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