Tuesday, 11th February 2020
The big news since our last newsletter is that Bitcoin made it through 10,000 as its target, short of the potential FOMO blowout we thought could be possible. The market had been getting frothy in the short term, as well as the massive increase in open interest at leveraged venues. It is worth considering that there was a strong sentiment of bids waiting for a pullback.
- Bitcoin has reversed in the near term at 10,000
- Massive open interest at trading venues
- Cash on sidelines wanting to bid
- Potential for FOMO blowout?
Bitcoin can trade to around 9300 today while still sitting in the up-trend. A squeeze below the trend-line or a short-squeeze both feel like reasonable things to attempt. With money waiting on the sidelines, it could be harder to get money back out of a bearish move.
Although Bitcoin still looks generally bullish Ethereum is forming a rounded top at the end of its move.
Bitcoin Cash has false-broken its high. Another move higher would be remarkable, yet it is still right there. We can see in this chart that these markets can move straight through technical rules in a highly-leveraged bullish run.
If markets do come off it will be a big test for BSV, which has joined marquee tokens in the top 5. It already is a huge victory for the game theory of Craig Wright which seemed impossible from within the space. One theory goes that it is attracting bids ‘just in case’.
Most other digital assets are down on the day. The Fear and Greed Index for crypto is marginally past neutral.
In traditional markets, Oil has been getting crushed, Gold is playing around at the 1570 level and equities are strong, although it will be interesting to see how long this can go for. The official coronavirus death toll has topped 1000 with a 1% estimate of mortality, however one reddit user pointed out that the Chinese reported figures had been a little too perfect along a quadratic epidemic growth model, as below. An exiled Chinese billionaire has suggested that the figure is closer to 50,000, given the workings of Wuhan crematoriums.
In their post (https://tinyurl.com/rnsn9lb), they predicted the next week of figures from the Chinese government official figures highly accurately, being barely off. A similar study of falsified data on organ transplant reform was presented here https://tinyurl.com/su4wuuk. It’s not exactly a secret but it isn’t looking good for any data out of China.
There has also been a report by a Yale Economist seconded to the Bank of England who has volunteered to do the heavy lifting in corrupting social institutions for the benefit of capital. He justifies and rationalises the current central bank regime in a way that is frankly bizarre – We will cover more on this later.