What is happening with Bitcoin right now?
Remember in 2019 when the worst thing that year was the last season of Game of Thrones? If they have not already, people are starting to realise how serious COVID-19 is and how much damage it is doing to every facet of our lives. Whether it be social, physical or fiscal the world is starting to wake up to the reality that is COVID-19.
Except for the 20,000 people on Bondi beach on Saturday, though in classic Australian fashion we are still 2 weeks behind on everything.
After what some are referring to as Crypto’s Friday the 13th (of March) where the market shat the bed with Bitcoin dropping 2k in half an hour going from 9k to hitting 3.7k (Hopefully the bottom) on Friday the 13th. The rest of the crypto market followed and many hearts were broken as the safe haven narrative wasn’t holding up.
But there has been a glimmer of hope over the week to follow. This Phoenix we are hopefully going to witness rise from the ashes of the global economy is Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. Bouncing back from Friday the 13th back up above 6.5k. Bitcoin has not come out on top yet. But it is trending in the right direction.
So in this week’s shill I am going to throw around some theories to what might be causing Bitcoin to rally and might keep it rallying.
I will just say Dion Dalton-Bridges called this pretty early and even wrote an article about it here. Decoupling became the new buzzword on Crypto Twitter last week, as crypto started to rally and traditional markets continued to crumble.
Most people can figure out what the decoupling is just from the name. But for anyone wanting a quick run through and didn’t bother to read Dion’s article (I suggest you do). It is pretty much Bitcoin separating from the s&p 500, which in the past it has been linked to.
Maybe it is wishful thinking that people are realising that Bitcoin may be the answer to our economic worries and Friday the 13th was just a little shake out getting rid of weak hands.
We all know about the countries around the world that are already in dire need of a new financial system (Greece, Argentina, Venezuela). All obvious before 2020, but COVID-19 is bringing to light how unstable it all really is. The Aussie dollar is the weakest it has been in 17 years. A quick Google search will give you a multitude of articles with estimates that unemployment in Australia is expected to reach between 7–9% in the coming months and it is not only Australia facing these struggles.
There was a tweet in a thread from Chris Burniske that might be taken out of context. But I still think it applies.
Could this be the crisis to finally give Bitcoin the recognition it has been fighting for?
People are buying crypto because it is a faster way to move money around. The way these markets have been moving is crazy and no one had been able to predict this before February. Not only is crypto immune from many government regulations and international transfer restrictions (remittance) i.e waiting for your bank to approve an attraction.
So if your government starts to shut down and banks stop allowing withdrawals, those of you with the foresight to put it in crypto should hopefully be laughing.
Andreas Antonopoulos can tell you how important this is and how well it worked out for his mum.
Price to earnings
A lot of companies are going to be failing in the coming months and government bailouts are going to be needed. A Goldman Sachs economist has crunched some numbers and it doesn’t look good. Gambling could drop 95%, Sports & Entertainment could fall 80%, hotel revenue 75%, public transportation 70% the list goes on and nothing is safe.
The beauty of Crypto is that it is not limited by price to earnings valuation making it a more attractive investment in these uncertain times. As it is pretty much guaranteed most companies won’t be making money anytime soon.
At the end of the day no one knows why the crypto market has been pumping post-Friday the 13th and there are plenty of theories. Government incentives will start rolling in around the world. It would be a dream to imagine that money would flow into Crypto. But I think that the reality is that these people will be using it to pay rent and buy toilet paper.
However, we need to remind ourselves, friends and family that in Crypto nothing has changed. Everything remains the same. Yes, we are in a fucked situation. Yes, we are in need of change. Yes, we will recover. The fundamentals are still the same, we just need to “Keep calm and carry on”.
What do you think is causing the recent pump? A combination of these things? And what happens to Bitcoin if it does not pull through this? Has it failed? What will replace it? Let me know.